The Decisions that Decided the World Cup |
||||
 |
21-Point Semifinal: White on roll. Cube action?!
|
|||
| White leads the race by 96-127 (31 pips). That
means that Black´s winning chances in a pure race are about 8%. Black´s chances to hit a
checker are not that high. He can´t keep the block on the 17-point. He has not the time
for it. As soon as White´s 10-point is stripped, he has 9 or 11 (depending on Black
has no more 17-point) numbers to clear that point. He should have time to clear the
10-point for the next 4 rolls. So White is a big favorite to clear the 10-point safe. Let´s say Black gets a shot in a third of the games and hits more than every 3rd shot. So he wins about 10% additional games by a hit. |
Black´s takepoint at the actual match score
is higher than in a game for money. White threatens to get a Crawford lead by winning two
points! Although Black has a powerful redouble with a 40% takepoint for White, Black´s
winning chances are not high enough to justify a take. Black is almost too good to double. White has a clear pass. (White wins 82% single 5% gammons; Black wins: 18% single 0.6% gammons). Karsten Bolge doubled and Chris Ternel took and lost a gammon and the match. |
|||
 |
21-Point Semifinal: Christensen (White) 7, Oengel (Black) 9 White on roll. Cube action?! |
|||
| White got hit while bearing off against four checkers on the bar. Black´s 4-point is open and Black still has two checkers on the bar! If White brings his back checker to safety, he is able to score a gammon for sure (over 40% of the games!). White should wait at least for another roll. The position is too good. | Correct cube action: No double -
pass. Tobias Christensen doubled and Engin Öngel took. Engin Öngel redoubled prematurely and won 4 points and the match by 21-9.
|
|||
 |
23-Point Final: Bolge (Black) 19, Oengel (White) 21 Black on roll. Cube action?! After double - take Black to play 3-1. |
|||
| Black has to double now. The
position is very volatile Black is clear favorite to win the game and Black is able to win
some gammons by attacking White´s back checker. Gammon wins win the game for Black. With a 3-1 Black should go for his game plan: Attacking White´s back checker (8/4*). |
Black doesn´t have to fear
gammon losses any more! Black has to maximize his wins and gammon wins! Karsten Bolge didn´t attack, covered on the 2-point and placed a spare checker on the bar. Engin Oengel escaped with a six and won the game and the World Cup VI. |
|||